Help!  I Need to Make a Decision

I seem to be surrounded by people who have some big decisions to make - some about their lives, some about their business - some early in their careers - and some later.  To varying degrees, some of these people have a history of making hasty decisions that at times worked out well, and other times not - and some of these people struggle to make decisions at all.  This represents a fairly typical cross section of the population - dealing with life. 

I have long been interested in the process of making decisions, and as a consultant, it is useful to understand someone's decision making style when trying to help them move forward.  A framework I use to help me do this is the 'Decider-Analyst Spectrum'.  As the name suggests, this has 2 extreme styles at either end of a spectrum - the aim is to figure out where along that spectrum an individual sits - in routine, new, or exceptional circumstances.

• Analysts - are thorough, detail-oriented, and cautious decision-makers. They prefer to gather as much information as possible before making a decision and focus on minimising risk by ensuring that all variables have been considered. They are methodical and often rely on data, research, and evidence. As a result, Analysts have a tendency toward analysis paralysis. They may delay decisions as they pursue more data, which can be problematic in situations where time is of the essence. Also, they might miss opportunities because of their reluctance to decide with incomplete information. 

• Deciders - are decisive, action-oriented, and comfortable with making decisions even in the face of uncertainty. They prioritise speed and are often willing to act on intuition or experience when full information is not available. Deciders tend to be more comfortable with ambiguity and are more likely to take risks.  The possible consequence of this is the risk of making decisions without sufficient information, which can lead to errors or misjudgments. Deciders might overlook important details or fail to consider alternative options, leading to suboptimal outcomes. Most people find themselves somewhere between those 2 extremes, but will have a 'natural' place for when faced with either new situations, familiar situations, or being under pressure.  Where are you?  

Mental Models to help with Decision Making 

There are a lot of mental models or tools for thought that can be used to help make those bigger decisions regardless of where you are on the spectrum, but here are 4 of my favourites; the first 2 provide some objective assessment, the second 2 are more subjective with a 'feeling' element. 

40-70 Rule (as used by General Colin Powell) helps avoid issues at both ends of the spectrum and brings a balance between the need for thoroughness and the need for speed in decision making.

• 40% Information - You should begin making decisions (at least testing them out) once you have at least 40% of the information you may need. Waiting for more information beyond this point may delay the decision unnecessarily, leading to missed opportunities or the inability to respond swiftly to changing circumstances. Waiting for a perfect amount of information (which rarely exists) can be counterproductive.

• 70% Information - You should avoid making decisions if you have more than 70% of the information needed. Gathering too much information can lead to overthinking and delays, which can be detrimental in fast-moving situations. If you have over 70% of the information, you’re likely over-prepared and may have missed the optimal time to act. 

Two way Door (as described by Jeff Bezos) distinguishes between decisions that can be easily reversed (reversible or two-way door decisions) and those that cannot (irreversible or one-way door decisions).  Most decisions can be reversed and so may not need the same level of scrutiny as the irreversible decision.  And so, Two-way Door decisions could be made quicker, with less angst, while offering the opportunity for experimentation. 

Regret Minimization (my dad, and also espoused by Jeff Bezos) helps you make bold decisions by considering how you would feel about the decision in the future, potentially reducing the fear of failure.  Project yourself MANY years into the future and look back on your life - would you feel regret from making the decision - or would you have more regret from not making the decision?  And so, it encourages you to take risks that align with your long-term goals and aspirations. 

10/10/10 Rule (Suzy Welch) asks you to consider how you will feel about a decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.  It helps Deciders balance their immediate emotional responses with longer-term consequences, and it provides Analysts with a means to recognise the longer-term impact of their decisions, perhaps providing motivation to act.  

Analysts and Deciders can work well together 

An extreme analyst and an extreme decider on the same team can be sources of great annoyance and frustration to each other - but when they both acknowledge each other's style, recognise the value that each can bring, the combination can be quite powerful - deciders keep the project moving, and analysts make sure the project doesn't go off the rails. 

Also:

• Analysts might like to be aware of Parkinson's Law that states that "work expands to fill the time available for its completion" and so with this realisation, analysts can create some artificial pressure for themselves by giving themselves a deadline - or find a 'decider' to do it for them.
• Deciders might like to apply 'Second-order Thinking' to help them more consistently make better quality decisions and so 'slow down to go faster'.  This involves considering the long-term consequences of a decision, including the potential second-order (or indirect) effects that might not be immediately apparent. And so consider not just the immediate impact of decisions, but also the ripple effects - an analyst could help here by asking some of those tricky uncomfortable questions.  

When making decisions about the future, we have to work with uncertainty, and people tend to avoid uncertainty if at all possible.  We don't have crystal balls and there is no such thing as the perfect decision - but we do need to keep moving.  

Graham